Europe's energy transition has been a long and winding road, with the continent investing heavily in renewable energy sources over the past two decades. However, despite the billions spent and the political focus, Europe's energy dependence on imports has remained largely unchanged. This article explores the reasons behind this paradox and the challenges that lie ahead for Europe's energy security.
The core issue is that Europe has transformed its power supply faster than it has electrified its economy. While wind turbines and solar panels have become a staple of the European landscape, the rest of the economy has been slower to adapt. Oil fuels cars, gas heats homes, and industry relies on fossil fuels for energy and feedstock. Until these sectors are electrified, more renewable electricity does little to reduce imports.
The numbers are stark. Only about one in 30 cars on European roads is electric, and heat pumps, while growing in popularity, still represent a minority of heating systems. Heavy industry remains deeply tied to fossil fuels, often for reasons that go beyond simple energy substitution. As a result, even as renewable generation surged and overall energy consumption fell by roughly a tenth, Europe's oil and gas imports barely budged.
This is not a technological failure. Europe has built a formidable renewable base, with roughly half of its electricity now generated from green sources and coal largely pushed aside. The problem is structural. Europe has reduced its own supply faster than it has reduced its demand, and imports have filled the gap.
The latest energy shock, triggered by instability linked to the war with Iran, has exposed the consequences. Fuel prices are once again surging, hitting rural households hardest. In countries like France, where large parts of the population depend on cars and oil-based heating, the pain is acute. Yet the policy response looks familiar, with governments doubling down on renewable targets and reviving short-term relief measures.
The instinct is understandable. Renewables are politically attractive: they promise climate progress, industrial policy wins, and eventually, lower costs. But as a tool for immediate energy security, they are blunt. What Europe has underinvested in is the harder, less visible side of the transition: electrification. Replacing a petrol car with an electric vehicle is straightforward in principle but slow in practice, requiring charging infrastructure, consumer incentives, and behavioral change. Retrofitting homes with heat pumps is capital-intensive and often politically contentious. Transforming industry is harder still, involving costly overhauls and uncertain technologies.
These are not headline-grabbing projects. They do not deliver ribbon-cutting moments like a new wind farm. But they determine whether renewable electricity actually displaces imported fossil fuels. Without them, Europe risks producing more clean power while continuing to burn imported oil and gas.
The long-term exposure to global fossil fuel markets and the geopolitical shocks that come with them is a concern. Even under optimistic climate scenarios, electrification of Europe's economy is expected to reach only around 50% by the 2040s. This implies decades more exposure to global fossil fuel markets, and to the geopolitical shocks that come with them. The uncomfortable conclusion is that Europe's energy transition, as currently structured, has not failed on its own terms – it has succeeded in greening electricity – but it has failed to deliver what many policymakers implicitly promised: energy independence.
Closing that gap would require a shift in priorities, from building more supply to transforming demand. It would also force a more contentious debate about domestic fossil fuel production, at least in the medium term. Absent that, Europe's energy story is likely to remain what it has been for the past 20 years: cleaner, but no less dependent.
In my opinion, Europe's energy transition has been a missed opportunity. The continent has the resources and the technology to become energy independent, but the political will and the focus on the wrong areas have held it back. As a result, Europe remains vulnerable to global energy shocks and geopolitical instability. It is time for a more comprehensive and ambitious approach to energy security, one that prioritizes electrification and the transformation of demand over the construction of more supply.
