Morgan Stanley's 2025 Top 50 Watch Brands Report reveals a highly polarized market, with Rolex leading the way. The report, a collaboration between Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult, highlights a significant trend in the luxury watch industry: the top 4 brands now dominate over 50% of the Swiss watch market, up from 55% in 2024. This trend is further emphasized by the contraction in the overall market, with exports down -1.7% in value terms, reaching approximately CHF 49 billion (excl. VAT). The wholesale market for Swiss watches worldwide is estimated to be around CHF 25.9 billion in 2025, while exports are reported at CHF 24.4 billion by the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry (FHS). This marks a second consecutive year of market contraction in value, with industry volumes halving since 2011. The report underscores the strong polarisation of the market, with the top 4 brands accounting for more than 50% of the overall Swiss watch market, a development common to nearly all segments of the luxury goods sector.
The report's key takeaways include the continued dominance of Rolex, Cartier, Audemars Piguet, Patek Philippe, Omega, and Richard Mille, often referred to as 'The Big 4' of the watch industry. These brands have gained market share while listed groups have generally lost market share. Despite market uncertainties and a challenging geopolitical and economic environment, these top brands remain relatively impervious to change. However, their growth was relatively limited in 2025, with Rolex experiencing a decline in volumes for the first time in over 20 years. The report also highlights the struggles of some brands, such as Longines, Swatch, Hamilton, Blancpain, Breguet, Panerai, Roger Dubuis, Zenith, Girard-Perregaux, and Franck Muller, which experienced significant turnovers of 15% or more in 2025. Omega, once the second-largest brand, is now ranked fifth due to declining sales and faster growth among its competitors.
The market is increasingly polarised, with the top 4 brands dominating over 50% of the market. The 'billionaires' club' (brands with revenues over CHF 1 billion) has contracted, with Longines and Vacheron Constantin exiting in 2024. The ultra-premiumisation of the market is evident, with watches priced above CHF 50,000 contributing 89% of total growth in 2025, despite accounting for only 1.4% of volumes. The core range of the Swiss watch industry, once dominated by the Swatch Group, is facing challenges, while the ultra-luxury segment continues to thrive. High-end independent watchmakers, such as F.P. Journe, H. Moser & Cie., and MB&F, are also performing well, with increased revenues in 2025. Christopher Ward, a mid-range independent watchmaker, has also made its mark among the top 50 brands.
For more insights, visit Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult. The report's estimates are based on rigorous analysis and do not directly represent the brands' data.
