A chilling prospect looms as the last nuclear weapons control treaty between the US and Russia is set to expire, sparking fears of a renewed arms race. This treaty, known as the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty or "New START," was signed in 2010 and aimed to prevent a catastrophic nuclear conflict. It limited each party to deploying no more than 1,550 strategic nuclear warheads and established transparency measures, including data sharing and on-site inspections.
The treaty's expiration marks a significant departure from the arms control cooperation that helped bring an end to the Cold War. Pope Leo, in a recent statement, urged the US and Russia to renew the treaty, emphasizing the need to "do everything possible to avert a new arms race" in the current global climate.
The original START treaty, signed in 1991 by the US and the Soviet Union, set a limit of 6,000 deployed nuclear warheads for each signatory. New START, signed in 2010, continued this legacy, with the US and Russia, the successor state to the Soviet Union, agreeing to further reduce their nuclear arsenals. Despite a technical suspension three years ago, both countries were believed to be adhering to the treaty's terms.
New START's expiration follows a worrying trend. Other longstanding arms control treaties have already been abandoned, such as the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Agreement, which eliminated the deployment of shorter-range nuclear weapons in Europe; the Open Skies Treaty, which allowed unarmed reconnaissance flights over signatory territories; and the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty, which limited the deployment of tanks, troops, and artillery systems within Europe.
Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, former head of the British armed forces, has warned that the architecture that kept the world safe is now at risk of unraveling. In a speech last year, he described the collapse of these key treaties as one of the most dangerous aspects of global security, alongside the increasing prominence of nuclear weapons.
Dmitry Medvedev, the Russian politician who signed New START in 2010, has stated that its expiration should "alarm everyone." This statement is particularly sobering given his recent nuclear-themed rhetoric. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has appeared less concerned, stating, "If it expires, it expires... We'll just do a better agreement."
Washington believes that any future arms control treaty should include China, which has been expanding its nuclear arsenal. Russia, on the other hand, argues that France and the UK, Europe's nuclear powers, should be included in any future agreements.
Darya Dolzikova, a senior researcher with the RUSI's Proliferation and Nuclear Policy Programme, has expressed concern over the expiration of New START, noting that both the US and Russia have incentives to expand their strategic capabilities. Indeed, both countries are currently modernizing their nuclear forces and increasing their strategic capabilities, indicating that a new arms race is already underway.
Dolzikova suggests that Russia's development of new weapons designed to penetrate air defenses, such as the Poseidon torpedo and the Burevestnik cruise missile, is a response to perceived vulnerabilities. Additionally, the US, Russia, and China are all developing long-range hypersonic missiles, which are highly maneuverable and difficult to intercept.
The expansion of military capabilities and the growing salience of nuclear weapons make reaching a new arms control treaty increasingly challenging. More countries appear to view nuclear weapons as a necessary deterrent, and neither the US nor Russia seems eager to sign a new treaty anytime soon.
The subject of a new arms control agreement was discussed during Russian President Vladimir Putin's meeting with Trump in Alaska last year, but no progress was made. While a new deal is still possible, the expiration of New START signals a more volatile and dangerous era in international relations.
