Vietnam's recent election of To Lam as president marks a significant shift in the country's political landscape, away from the traditional model of shared leadership. This development is particularly intriguing given the parallels with power structures in China under Xi Jinping and neighboring Laos. The consolidation of power in Lam's hands presents both opportunities and risks, as he now has a stronger mandate and more political room to push through his agenda. This raises a deeper question: How will this concentration of power impact Vietnam's economic and political trajectory, especially in the face of global challenges like the energy shock from the war in Iran and U.S. pressure over its trade surplus?
From my perspective, the rise of Lam as a career policeman who advanced from Vietnam's security services to the top of the political system is a fascinating development. It caps a sweeping anti-corruption campaign launched by his predecessor, which he oversaw as head of the Ministry of Public Security. This campaign has led to Vietnam's biggest bureaucratic overhaul since the 1980s, cutting jobs, merging ministries, redrawing provincial boundaries, and advancing major infrastructure projects. Lam's focus on economic performance and private-sector growth is particularly interesting, as it aims to move Vietnam beyond the labor- and export-driven model that has helped lift millions from poverty and build a manufacturing-based middle class. However, the country is now targeting 10% or higher annual economic growth over each of the next five years, which presents a significant challenge in the face of global economic uncertainty.
One thing that immediately stands out is the potential impact of Lam's consolidation of power on Vietnam's foreign policy. The country has benefited from a careful balancing strategy in foreign policy, but maintaining that position will become harder in a more turbulent world. Vietnam is facing U.S. pressure over its trade surplus and must also balance ties with China, its largest trading partner and rival claimant in the South China Sea. This raises a deeper question: How will Lam's concentration of power impact Vietnam's ability to navigate these complex geopolitical waters?
In my opinion, the election of To Lam as president is a significant turning point for Vietnam. It presents an opportunity for faster decision-making, greater policy coherence, and a better chance of pushing difficult reforms at a pivotal moment. However, the risk is that the concentration of power can move faster than institutional reform. Lam's rise to the top caps the ascent of a career policeman who advanced from Vietnam's security services to the top of the political system, and it will be fascinating to see how this development impacts the country's economic and political trajectory in the coming years.
